关键词: 人口老龄化, DEA Malmquist指数法, 全要素生产率

Abstract: In this paper, total factor productivity and its factors of China’s 31 provinces were firstly calculated by using DEA Malmquist index approach. Then China’s provincial data was used to empirically research for the impact of population aging on total factor productivity. The calculation of total factor productivity showed that annual growth rate of China’s total factor productivity from 2000 to 2013 was 2.5%, and technological progress was the main drive improving total factor productivity while the effect of technological efficiency was limited. The results of empirical research found that population aging had a negative effect on total factor productivity, namely, population aging would restrict the improvement of total factor productivity. In addition, the results of empirical research indicated that GDP growth rate, factor inputs ratio, R&D inputs and openness had negative effects on total factor productivity, while industrial structure had a positive effect on total factor productivity.

Key words: population aging, DEAMalmquist, total factor productivity