关键词: 系统性风险, 条件风险价值, 边际期望损失, 风险传染

Abstract: The interconnectedness of networks among modern economic entities is getting stronger and risks can easily spread between different industries.Therefore,effectively identifying and analyzing systemic risks is a key step in preventing financial crises.Based on the two indicators of Conditional Value at Risk(CoVaR)and Marginal Expected Loss(MES),the static and dynamic characteristics of the systematic risk of the Tide industry index were studied.The results show that:The systemic risk among industries is highly correlated,and the early 2009 and March 2016 are the two peaks of systemic risk;From the perspective of different industries,the systemic risk of the material industry is the highest,while the systemic risk of the consumer and pharmaceutical industries is the lowest.The dynamic panel model is used to analyze the market factors that affect the systemic risk of the industry.It is found that industries with higher short-term gains,lower long-term gains,and more liquidity tend to have lower systemic risks.It is necessary to strengthen the supervision of industries with higher systemic risks;establish financial firewalls to prevent excessive transmission of external financial risks;and strengthen real-time monitoring of various industries,especially focusing on short-term surges and liquidity.

Key words: systemic risk, CoVaR, MES, risk infection