关键词: 企业家信心, 消费者信心, VAR模型, 疫后经济复苏

Abstract: COVID-19 is spreading in the world currently.It is essential to study the relationship between entrepreneur confidence,consumer confidence and industrial development,which is useful for the rational formulation of post-epidemic economic policies and the healthy development of Chinas economy.Based on the quarterly statistical data of the National Bureau of Statistics from 2001 to 2019,this paper builds a VAR model and compares the differences between the impact of entrepreneur confidence and consumer confidence in the secondary and tertiary industries through impulse response analysis and variance decomposition.The results show that the impact of entrepreneur confidence on the second industry is greater than that of the third industry,while the impact of consumer confidence on the third industry is greater than that of the second industry in the short term.As time goes on,the impact of consumer confidence on the second industry is more and more obvious.Compared with the entrepreneur confidence,the influence of consumer confidence on the industrial development is more lasting,and the influence of consumer confidence on the output of the secondary industry is relatively lagging.The government should pay attention to the guidance of market expectation,formulate confidence stimulating policies in combination with the differences of industrial structure between regions and the sensitivity of different industries to the changes of confidence;take into account the differences in the future development direction of the industry and the impact of the epidemic on the industry;improve the bias of confidence on related industries;combine the time characteristics of the effect of the confidence of entrepreneurs and consumers,and formulate long-term and short-term economic policies of coordination.

Key words: entrepreneur confidence, consumer confidence, VAR model, post-epidemic economic recovery