关键词: 土地流转行为, Logistic模型, ROC曲线, 生态功能区域

Abstract: It is of great significance to clarify the main influencing factors of farmers’ land transfer behavior and promote the matching of transfer intention and transfer behavior for improving land use efficiency and ensuring ecological land supply in ecological function areas.Based on farmer survey data in Hebei Province,the research used the binary Logistic regression model and ROC curve to analyze the infuencing factors of farmers’ land transfer behavior.And the ROC curve was used to test the model effect and define the optimal prediction threshold.Model results display the Youden Index is 32.7% by ROC curve and the corresponding threshold is 0.41,which illustrates the model has a good prediction.The research shows that household size,contracted land scale,main income sources,cognition of land ownership,village topography,village category,and rent are important factors affecting the land transfer behavior of farmers,but the influencing factors of farmers’ land transfer behavior are not limited to the consideration of economic factors.

Key words: land transfer behavior, Logistic model, ROC curve, ecological function areas