关键词: 城镇化, 投资率, 杠杆率, 城镇化率上限

Abstract: Chinas urbanization has entered a period of deceleration,and there is limited room for improvement of urbanization in the future.In the context of mutual causality between urbanization and investment,it is of great significance to maintain a reasonable level of urbanization and investment rate.This paper establishes a theoretical model for urbanization rate and investment rate,selects panel data of 42 countries from 1980 to 2022,and introduces leverage ratio as a moderating variable to study the relationship between urbanization rate and investment rate.The results show that:(1)there is a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between urbanization rate and investment rate,which is more significant in aging countries.(2)Leverage ratio is a moderating variable that affects the inverted U-shaped relationship between urbanization rate and investment rate,which is significant in both low leverage and high leverage,as well as both government departments and non-financial corporations.Furthermore,it is proposed that the upper limit of Chinas urbanization rate should be around 80%,and the lower limit of investment rate should be around 20%.At the same time,we should exert the regulatory effect of leverage ratio,and promote a new type of urbanization centered around people.

Key words: urbanization, investment rate, leverage ratio, the upper limit of urbanization rate