关键词: 中国经济, 风险分析, 贸易摩擦, 新冠肺炎疫情

Abstract: Under the background of Chinas economic slowdown,this paper analyzes the challenges of Chinas economic development and the impact of Chinas economy on the world economy,and uses the Oxford global economic model to simulate the impact of Chinas economic development.The research shows that the high level of debt and credit scale has increased the risk of sustainable development of Chinas economy,the high real estate price has accelerated the accumulation of financial risks,Sino-US trade frictions have exacerbated external risks,and the novel coronavirus epidemic has caused short-term and medium-term risks.With the deep integration of China and the world economy in terms of trade,the “Belt and Road”,capital flows,consumption,and industrial convergence,the influence of the Chinese economy on the world economy has gradually deepened.The simulation results show that if Chinas economic growth rate decreases by 1%,2% and 3% every year,the global economic growth rate will respectively decrease by 0.2%,0.5% and 0.6% in 2020.Furthermore,this article puts forward policy recommendations such as expanding corporate financing channels,preventing financial risks,controlling real estate leverage,stimulating domestic consumption,and strengthening macro-prudential supervision.

Key words: Chinas economy, risk analysis, trade friction, novel coronavirus epidemic