老龄化加剧了中国城镇居民的消费不平等吗?——基于年龄效应调整模型的分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1005-6378.2018.05.010

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 研究人口老龄化对消费不平等的影响,其重点和难点在于年龄效应的调整,即如何排除出生组效应,并剔除收入等年龄相关因素的干扰。为此,使用1995—2013年CHIP城镇调查数据,基于回归分解的方法获得年龄效应,并在此基础上计算剔除年龄效应的基尼系数,考察老龄化对城镇居民消费不平等的影响。研究结果表明:其一,剔除年龄效应的基尼系数逐步攀升,表明在排除老龄化相关因素的影响后,中国城镇居民的消费不平等趋势不断增强;其二,经典基尼系数始终小于剔除年龄效应的基尼系数,意味着中国城镇居民老龄化对消费不平等具有抑制作用;其三,目前中国城镇居民消费不平等的年龄效应尚处于低位水平,但随着时间的推移和人口老龄化程度的加深,老龄化对城镇居民消费不平等的影响将愈加彰显。

关键词: 消费不平等, 年龄效应, 基尼系数, 老龄化

Abstract: When studying the impact of aging on the consumption inequality, the most difficult point is how to adjust the age effect, i.e., how to eliminate the cohort effects and how to deal with the interference of age-related factors. For this reason, we calculate a new age-adjusted Gini coefficient by using the CHIP urban survey data from 1995 to 2013. First, we employ a multivariate regression model to isolate the age effects while controlling other determinants of consumption constant. Then, the consumption distribution of perfect equality is determined and age-adjusted Gini coefficient is derived finally. In this way, we eliminate the interference of age-related factors and accurately estimate the impact of aging on consumption inequality. The results show that:(1)The age-adjusted Gini coefficient is gradually increased, showing the trend of consumption inequality of urban residents in China is enhanced after excluding the influence of aging.(2)The classical Gini coefficient is always smaller than age adjusted Gini coefficient, indicating that the aging of urban residents in China has a negative effect on consumption inequality.(3)The age effect of consumption inequality of urban resident is at a low level but the role of age effects in consumption inequality will become more apparent in the future.

Key words: consumption inequality, age effects, Gini coefficient, aging

中图分类号:

F126

陈东,王萌迪. 老龄化加剧了中国城镇居民的消费不平等吗?——基于年龄效应调整模型的分析[J]. 河北大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2018, 43(5): 71-84.

CHEN Dong, WANG Meng-di. Does the Aging Aggravate Urbans Consumption Inequality? ——Based on the Analysis of Age Effect Adjustment Model[J]. JOURNAL OF HEBEI UNIVERSITY (Philosophy and Social Science), 2018, 43(5): 71-84.

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