Abstract: From the micro perspective of accounting income,this paper studies the risk of macro-economic operation,finds that the gap between the return on assets between monetary assets and investment real estate continues to widen,which leads to the increase of macro leverage and financial risk.Based on the annual data of China from 2000 to 2018,the Koyck model is constructed to empirically test the relationship between the return spread of different types of assets and the leverage ratio of the government departments,the leverage ratio of the household sector,the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises and the leverage ratio of the real economy.The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between the return spread and the leverage of government departments,the leverage of household sector,the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises and the leverage ratio of the real economy.When “return spread” has continued to widen,and the macro leverage of various departments has been rising,asset bubbles will be hard to be suppressed,and macroeconomic risks will be great.This study has provides a new perspective for the smooth deleveraging and keeping the bottom line of no systemic financial risk.

Key words: return spread, leverage, financial risk